Shell today released new
scenarios that explore two possible ways the 21st century could unfold, with
dramatically different implications for society and the world's energy system.
One scenario sees cleaner-burning natural gas becoming the most important
energy source globally by the 2030s and early action to limit carbon dioxide
emissions. The other sees solar becoming the top source by about 2070, but with
slower action to address the threat of climate change.
The New Lens Scenarios, which
look at trends in the economy, politics and energy as far ahead as 2100,
underscore the critical role that government policies could play in shaping the
future.
"These scenarios show
how the choices made by governments, businesses and individuals in the next few
years will have a major impact on the way the future unfolds," said Chief
Executive Officer Peter Voser.
"They highlight the need
for business and government to find new ways to collaborate, fostering policies
that promote the development and use of cleaner energy, and improve energy
efficiency."
With the world's population
headed toward 9.5 billion by 2060 and the rapid growth of emerging economies
lifting millions of people out of poverty for the first time, the scenarios
project that world energy demand could double over the next 50 years.
Called Mountains and Oceans,
Shell's scenarios explore two plausible future pathways for society. Each
scenario dives into the implications for the pace of global economic
development, the types of energy we use to power our lives and the growth in
greenhouse gas emissions. The scenarios look further into the future than
many other outlooks and highlight some surprising possible developments. Both
see global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) dropping to near zero by 2100. One
factor is increasing use of technology that takes CO2 out of the atmosphere,
for instance by burning biomass to produce electricity, and then storing
emissions underground. Although the Oceans scenario sees a dramatic increase in
solar power, it also envisions greater fossil fuel use and higher total CO2
emissions over the century than the Mountains scenario, which will likely have
more impact on the world's climate.
The scenarios highlight areas
of public policy likely to have the greatest influence on the development of
cleaner fuels and renewables, improvements in energy efficiency and on
moderating greenhouse gas emissions. They include:
- Measures to promote the
development of compact, energy-efficient cities, particularly in Asia and other rapidly urbanising parts of the
world.
- Mandates for greater efficiency
in areas such as transportation and buildings.
- Policies to encourage the safe
development of the world's abundant supply of cleaner-burning natural gas
-- and to promote its wider use in power generation, transport and other
areas.
- A price on CO2 emissions and
other incentives to speed the adoption of technologies to manage
emissions, particularly carbon capture and storage (CCS).
Mountains
The Mountains scenario
imagines a world of more moderate economic development in which policy plays an
important role in shaping the world's energy system and environmental pathway.
Cleaner-burning natural gas becomes the backbone of the world's energy system,
in many places replacing coal as a fuel for power generation and seeing wider
use in transport.
A profound shift in the
transportation sector sees global demand for oil peaking in about 2035. By the
end of the century, cars and trucks powered by electricity and hydrogen could
dominate the road. Technology to capture carbon dioxide emissions from power
stations, refineries and other industrial installations becomes widely used,
helping to reduce CO2 emissions from the power sector to zero by 2060. Another
factor is the growth of nuclear power in global electricity generation. Its
market share increases by around 25% in the period to 2060.
With these changes to the
energy system, greenhouse gas emissions begin to fall after 2030. Nevertheless,
emissions remain on a trajectory to overshoot the target of limiting global
temperatures rise to 2 degrees Celsius.
Oceans
The Oceans scenario envisions
a more prosperous, volatile world with an energy landscape shaped mostly by
market forces and civil society, with government policy playing a less
prominent role. Public resistance and the slow adoption of both policies and
technology limit the development of nuclear power and restrict the growth of
natural gas outside North America. Coal remains
widely used in power generation until at least the middle of the century.
Without strong support from
policymakers, carbon capture and storage catches on slowly. By mid-century CCS
captures only about 10% of emissions, growing to about 25% in 2075. This slow
uptake is the main reason electricity generation becomes carbon-neutral some 30
years later in the Oceans scenario than in the Mountains scenario.
Higher energy prices encourage
the development of hard-to-reach oil resources, as well as the expansion of
biofuel production. Oil demand continues to grow through the 20s and 30s,
reaching a plateau after 2040. Liquid fuels still account for about 70% of road
passenger travel by mid-century.
High prices also spur strong
efficiency gains and the development of solar power. By 2070, solar
photovoltaic panels become the world's largest primary source of energy. Wind
energy expands at a slower pace, due to public opposition to large
installations of wind turbines. Elevated demand for coal and oil, a lack
of support for CCS and less natural gas development outside of North America contributes to about 25% higher total
greenhouse gas emissions than in the Mountains scenario.
To explore Mountains and
Oceans in more detail, download Shell's New Lens Scenarios at http://www.shell.com/scenarios.
Shell has a 40-year history
of using scenario planning to explore possible future landscapes and aid
strategic decision-making. The latest publication continues a tradition of
sharing summaries of the scenarios to contribute to the public debate about
possible ways to tackle some of society's long-term challenges.
Notes to Editors
Royal
Dutch Shell plc
Royal
Dutch Shell plc is incorporated in England
and Wales, has its headquarters in The Hague and is listed on the London, Amsterdam, and New York stock exchanges. Shell companies have
operations in more than 100 countries and territories with businesses including
oil and gas exploration and production; production and marketing of liquefied
natural gas and gas to liquids; manufacturing, marketing and shipping of oil products
and chemicals and renewable energy projects. For further information, visit http://www.shell.com/
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SOURCE Royal Dutch Shell plc
FONTE Royal Dutch Shell plc
